Does this reflect ‘the risk we meant’?

The reality tells us that it is of course possible to have huge positive or negative cash
flows on a future margin account. So is our ECL forecast CF(d, k)ó0 of any use to
compute the risk? Is this zero cash flow really the risk we meant?
What we are able to forecast with ECL is the most likely cash flow for this date,
but it does not tell us anything about the actual risk that can happen with the casflow in a worse case in both directions. Before making any statements about actual
liquidity risk, it is necessary to give an estimation of the likelihood of special events;
e.g. how likely is it that a cash flow will be over/under a defined amount? Or given
a specified quantile, what is the biggest/smallest cash flow we can expect? 458