For systems incorporating or aggregating payment structures, which are often based
on market parameters, cash flows occurring at regular intervals in time would be
expected. Armed with this knowledge and depending upon the nature of the periodicity,
the expected value of such a series can be projected with a greater degree of confidence for either specific points in the forecast window or for the entire forecast
period as a whole.
At this stage, a series containing regular payments (e.g. mortgages, personal and
company loans, and sight deposit balance sheet movements) can be addressed and
quantified for projection purposes. The construction of a periodic model for a
calendar-based time series would logically consider dates on a weekly, monthly,
quarterly, half-yearly and yearly basis. It would also incorporate a corrective feature
for the often-occurring situation of due payments falling on weekends or public
holidays. In its simplest form, the concept of a monthly periodic model is the average
of historical values from a selected time window for the creation of a forward forecast.
Hiç yorum yok:
Yorum Gönder