The initial analysis of a time series is to look at the trends that exist within the data
itself. Following this logic, it seems intuitively reasonable to construct a curve
(surface) through a portion of the existing data so that deviations from it are
minimized in some way. This curve can then be projected forward from cob as a
forecast of the expected future tendency of the series.
Having agreed upon the characteristics of the desired trend line, its construction
can be simply defined as the requirement to reduce historically the standard deviation
of the errors between the behavioral function and the mean of the real values.
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