As many have learned the hard way, forecasts, regardless of how sophisticated, are
always wrong.13 So it is not surprising that when the financial markets offered up an
alternative approach it was readily embraced by the energy market players. In other
words rather than try to estimate what the market might do and the implications of
such a move, take the market’s best guess at where future prices are going and then
focus on estimating how wrong it is likely to be.
The two principal components used for this have been the forward curve price
discovery and volatility estimation.
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